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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Government. Support for the work of the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences is provided primarily by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Award No. BCS-1729167). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

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Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26548

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2022). Applications of an Analytic Framework on Using Public Opinion Data for Solving Intelligence Problems: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26548.

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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC OPINION: A WORKSHOP ON THE ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK AND ITS APPLICATIONS

CHARLES LAU (Chair), RTI International

JAMES N. DRUCKMAN, Northwestern University

COURTNEY KENNEDY, Pew Research Center

SCOTT E. PAGE, University of Michigan

Staff

DYLAN THOMAS REBSTOCK, Project Director

TINA M. WINTERS, Associate Program Officer

EMMA FINE, Associate Program Officer

JACQUELINE COLE, Senior Program Assistant

BARBARA A. WANCHISEN, Senior Advisor for Behavioral Sciences

SAMANTHA CHAO, Associate Executive Director Extension, National Research Council Programs

Acknowledgments

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individual for their review of this proceedings: David Tully, U.S. Department of State. We also thank staff member Ryan Murphy for reading and providing helpful comments on this manuscript.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Jonathan D. Moreno, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.

The National Academies’ staff and the workshop planning committee also express their gratitude to the National Academies’ Conference Management team members for their dedication to ensuring a logistically smooth workshop.

Contents

INTRODUCTION

1 PUBLIC OPINION DATA AND THE ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK

2 HYPOTHETICAL APPLICATIONS OF THE ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK

3 LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE PATHWAYS

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A Workshop Agenda

B Biographical Information for Workshop Participants