Challenges and Opportunities Toward a Just Transition and Sustainable Development

Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief

The concept of a just transition is increasingly recognized as a key element of sustainable development and the transformation of low-carbon economies and societies. A just transition has been defined as “greening the economy in a way that is as fair and inclusive as possible to everyone concerned, creating decent work opportunities and leaving no one behind.”¹ Challenges to achieve a just transition include limited data availability and stakeholder engagement, issues of inequality, lack of regulations, and limited financial resources.² To explore how to address these challenges, the Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability, the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and the Board on Science Education at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) jointly convened a public workshop on July 24, 2023.

WELCOME, WORKSHOP OVERVIEW, AND OBJECTIVES

In launching the workshop, Franklin Carrero-Martínez (National Academies) noted the workshop’s aim to stimulate a discussion on scientific-related priorities to a just transition and translate research from the lab to the field and practice, as well as to inform policy making.³ Roundtable co-chair Klaus Tilmes (policy advisor and development consultant) pointed out the recent emphasis on just energy transition partnerships (JETPs) in global policy discussions, and the opportunity they present for building new coalitions and taking action across sectors.⁴ Roundtable co-chair Cherry Murray (University of Arizona) expressed support for the long overdue inclusion of social and environmental issues in discussions about energy.

Workshop chair Jeff Martin (Tribal Planet) previously worked for Apple CEO Steve Jobs, and he posited that Jobs would have embraced the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as an operating system and just transitions as a “killer app” to bring the SDGs’ social element to the fore. Reminding the audience of the definition of just transitions (see above), Martin underscored that decarbonization of energy systems is crucial to achieving the SDGs and just transitions are a key element in that process.⁵ The private sector plays an important

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role, as recognized in an upcoming United Nations Private Sector Summit on Just Transitions. Reviewing the workshop objectives and agenda, he stressed the importance of measurement and analytics, the role of small and medium enterprises (SME) in addition to larger multinationals, and the critical role of education and inclusive skills development.

FRAMING REMARKS: THE INTERRELATED CONCEPTS OF A JUST TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Brian Motherway (International Energy Agency [IEA]) stressed the importance, amidst technical and policy discussion on energy transitions, to remember people’s lives and the goal to make their lives better. The term “just transition” has been used for decades, he noted, but became more central as a formal part of the Paris Agreement and elevated in subsequent Conferences of the Parties (COPs). Motherway welcomed the focus on JETPs mentioned by Tilmes but acknowledged that the language around them is complex. He said IEA uses the term “people-centered clean energy transition” to provide a wider context for inclusiveness, fairness, and other dimensions.

Four Categories of People-Centered Clean Energy. In 2021, IEA convened the Global Commission on People-Centre Clean Energy Transitions to bring together high-level officials, civil society representatives, and others. He summarized each of the four categories it encompassed: (1) jobs and skills; (2) social and economic development; (3) equity, social inclusion, and fairness; and (4) people as active participants in change.⁶

Related to jobs and skills, while analysis shows the energy transition will produce a net gain of new jobs, many people feel threatened. There is an urgent need for location-based solutions, which have occurred in some U.S. states and European nations, but the solutions require time and funding. Alternative models are emerging, especially in countries where coal is strongly connected throughout the economy, such as South Africa, India, and Indonesia. He commented on the importance of working with labor, communities, and the private sector to build confidence in new pathways.

Related to social and economic development, he reiterated the need to make people’s lives better and to make energy affordable and accessible. More than 700 million people in sub-Saharan Africa have no access to electricity, and across the continent, the average energy use per citizen is equivalent to the energy used by a refrigerator in the United States. Thus, the issues in different parts of the world are vastly different, he pointed out. For stakeholders in Africa, the first nonnegotiable point is there can be no dichotomy between access and transition to clean energy. He called attention to clean solutions that can expand access, such as solar energy efforts in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Access to clean cooking fuel is another important element, as detailed in a 2023 IEA study.⁷

Related to equity and fairness, questions arise about who benefits and who pays for new policies. When governments measure the overall impact of interventions, they do not necessarily delve into the distributional effects within their populations. Even if a government is not committed to fairness as a value, he commented, the reality is that success depends on it. IEA is undertaking research on distributional effects and how to maximize benefits for vulnerable communities, citing the U.S. Justice40 initiative as an example (presented in a later session). He also noted that energy, including clean energy, has a lower rate of gender parity than other sectors. In this regard, he pointed to skills-building programs in Canada, Kenya, Chile, and Panama. Finally, an emerging issue related to equity and fairness is the impact of the extraction of lithium and other clean-energy materials on more remote, less-served, or indigenous areas.

The goal of people as active participants points to a range of topics related to behaviors and decision making. Citizen assemblies and other convenings have involved people to be more involved to provide new ideas and legitimacy. However, he acknowledged political divides around clean energy and climate, which present risks to policies. In closing, Motherway stressed the four areas are at the heart of what clean energy transitions require. He offered IEA as a resource and partner.

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DISCUSSION

Bringing up the need for measurement, a participant observed that fairness seems the hardest to measure. Motherway suggested indicators might include health effects or who has benefited from incentives. Looking at geopolitical issues, fairness might be measured by looking at who has emitted carbon in the past few hundred years and who is now under pressure to reduce it. He agreed that more research and understanding are needed to consider global equity. Another participant suggested that sentiment analysis and big data may contribute to new tools for measurement.

To ensure workers will be able to take on new jobs, Motherway suggested going beyond macro-level data to an analysis of the training needed for the individuals directly affected. In a study of Norway’s oil sector, for example, almost all workers who lost their jobs are now employed in other fields, but this does not happen without support. He noted that artificial intelligence (AI) may provide technological opportunities, such as to improve smart grids. For skills development, he suggested communicating about AI carefully because it can feel threatening to many people. In addition to energy, there is unequal access to safe water, food, and other needs, a participant noted. Further, people not only need access, but they must be able to afford that access. With many hard judgments to make around values, another decision is what is owed future generations. Motherway said science plays a role, but these decisions are ultimately political questions. He called for more scientific rigor around the question of what is owed the future.

MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORKS FOR JUST TRANSITIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Workshop committee member Nebojsa Nakicenovic (World in 2050) characterized the 2030 SDG agenda as aspirational and holistic. Although the 17 goals are connected and not divisible, discussions and implementation have been siloed, he commented. The world is behind in operationalizing the SDGs, but measurement can be a way forward during this period of “climate, conflict, and COVID.” He called for just transformation, not just transition, because fundamental changes are need.⁸ “We need to know the past and the present in order to foster plans, strategies, and road maps for the way forward,” he said.

DESIGNING BETTER POLICIES

To Marek Harsdorff (International Labour Organization [ILO]), measuring a just transition is a means toward the goal of better policies. A framework must be country and sector specific, based on a wide variety of data, and transparent. The purpose of measurement, he stressed, is to design just transition policies to maximize job gains and protect against losses.

He described ILO’s Green Jobs Programme Assessment Model as one of many frameworks that can be used.⁹ It draws from many sources of economic, social, labor, and environmental data and integrates multiple data points into a consistent framework. A macro econometric structural simulation model was developed that can capture direct and indirect effects. Examples of use of the model include a global youth report that compared the impact of green versus conventional recovery and growth on employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and emissions in 2030. Several countries have used the model in their National Determined Contributions (NDC) assessments, including Mauritius and Nigeria. Harsdorff pointed that measurement alone without a theoretical framework and consistent modeling approaches is not sufficient for evidence-based policy advice. The ILO, together with its Green Jobs Assessment Institutions Network (GAIN) supports countries who wish to understand the social and employment impacts of climate policies to inform policy options for a Just Transition.

BENCHMARKING BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR FOR A JUST TRANSITION

The World Benchmarking Alliance (WBA) has developed free, publicly available benchmarks that measure and compare company performance on the SDGs, explained Vicky Sins (WBA). They are intended for use by companies, investors, governments, civil society

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organizations, and individuals.¹⁰ By 2024, WBA will publish a series of benchmarks against which to assess 2,000 of the most influential companies across all areas of transformation. “We believe if we hold these 2,000 companies to account, because they represent a significant portion of global GDP and employment, it will have an effect on supporting the SME sector as well,” she said. To develop its benchmarks, WBA translated the SDGs into seven interconnected business dimensions, using a systems transformation lens: decarbonization and energy, food and agriculture, nature, digital, and urban, with social issues at the heart and the financial system encircling the system.¹¹

The United Nations Secretariat convened a high-level expert group that developed a set of principles, criteria, and recommendations on Net Zero.¹² Non-state actors, including companies, are encouraged to publicly share their plans and how they are meeting their targets. As a way to do this, Sins focused on a WBA assessment of 450 companies in high-emitting sectors. The methodology assigns climate-related performance, narrative and trend scores based on companies’ responses to five questions: (1) What is the company planning? (2) How is the company planning to get there? (3) What is the company doing at present? (4) What has it done in the recent past? (5) How do these plans and actions fit together? This is complemented by a just transition assessment that looks at how the companies are performing with respect to the rights of workers, communities, and the most vulnerable. WBA also published a Just Transition Methodology, consisting of six indicators, in July 2021. To date, 320 companies have been assessed to date and the findings are available on the WBA website. She noted that just transition planning is low, with only 3 percent of the 320 companies reporting that they have this planning in place.

THE CONTRIBUTION OF ENGINEERING

Noam Lior (University of Pennsylvania) offered an engineering-oriented framework to measure achievement of the SDGs and a just transition. Sustainable development rests on economic, social, and environmental pillars, and he stressed that the needed massive environmental transition cannot be at the expense of the social and economic pillars.¹³ To find a sustainably optimal transition process, Lior suggested a framework that defines “just transition,” establishes quantitative definitions, and then undertakes analysis. He stressed the importance of selection of the most relevant indicators; validation of results; iteration; and preparation for hurdles, such as rebound effects, external effects like the pandemic or war, or problems with the data. Also included in the analysis and definition of sustainability should be resilience, which he defined as “the ability of a system to prepare for threats, absorb impacts, recover and adapt following persistent stress or a disruptive event.”¹⁴

Lior described a framework that he and colleagues have developed. The Composite Sustainability Index, as its name suggests, considers and weighs different economic, social, and environmental metrics into a composite number. He shared a set of equations that aggregates the indices for optimization and explained how the researchers used different approaches in several country examples.¹⁵ Lior concluded by warning against companies who “green wash” by claiming they are acting in a sustainable manner but are not. He called for sustainability ethics to prevent and control this situation.¹⁶

DISCUSSION

Several questions were asked about the measurements presented, including the need for just transition planning across supply chains and at more localized scales. Sins clarified that WBA assessments take subcontractors and others in the supply chain into account. Harsdorff

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explained that the Green Jobs Assessment can be stratified by location, not just at the national level. Lior elaborated on using resilience as a metric. He suggested including it in the most relevant pillar depending on the situation and noted some research underway in this area.

INVESTING FOR JUST TRANSITIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The second panel highlighted the key challenges and opportunities in investing for just transitions and sustainable development, including transitions in the power sectors in developing countries, sectoral partnerships, and federal initiatives to address energy justice research and evaluation. Workshop committee member Beatriz Sanz Sáiz (Ernst & Young), who moderated the session, highlighted the importance of investing for social equity to empower vulnerable communities, protect workers’ rights, enhance community resilience, promote diversity and cultural heritage, and advance gender equality.

SCALING UP TO PHASE DOWN

Pierre Audinet (The World Bank) reported on Scaling Up to Phase Down, a study to understand the constraints faced by developing countries to finance energy transitions in the power sector.¹⁷ The “scale up” referred to is increased use of clean and renewable energy and the “phase down” is the decrease of coal and other fossil fuels. Costs in renewable energy have lowered over the past few years and the crises for energy security, affordability, and resilience make the energy transition more urgent than ever, he said. A challenge, however, is the massive investments needed in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Excluding China, investments would have to quadruple to about $1 trillion annually in 2030 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, with 60 percent of the funds needed from the private sector. While a massive amount, he noted that about half that amount ($500 billion annually) is spent on fossil fuels each year. Thus, investment is both insufficient and misallocated.

LMICs face a “triple penalty,” Audinet continued. They pay more for lower amounts of clean energy because the transition requires a high upfront capital expenditure. They have limited ability to pay or finance these investments, which results in stunted decarbonization. The study calculated that because of the high cost of capital, electricity costs are higher in low-income than in high-income countries. Projecting to 2050, the study found that low-income countries would be “locked out” of economical clean energy.

The World Bank is looking at how to help LMICs set up a “power transition virtuous cycle” in which governments set targets, develop policies, and work through increasingly capable institutions to develop a pipeline of bankable projects that matches the scale needed. Transparent price discovery would lead to results in clean energy, which would inform government targets and the cycle would continue (Figure 1). Audinet noted this cycle is gradually materializing in India, Morocco, Turkey, and other countries. Capable institutions are key to the energy transition, Audinet stressed.

He also noted the need for clean-energy investments in LMICs and not just in richer countries. In terms of where donors should invest, the study suggests prioritizing concessional financing to overcome the toughest barriers.

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It is hard for LMICs to move away from immediate problems, but preparation for the transition is necessary. Fossil fuel phase-down financing is needed to facilitate the transition. Country-based programmatic approaches and technology demonstration partnerships can minimize and mitigate against risks.

CASE STUDY FROM A MULTINATIONAL COMPANY

Riva Krut (retired, Linde, PLC) described the efforts taken by Linde, as a very large energy-intensive multinational, toward clean energy. As a baseline, Linde’s annual greenhouse gas footprint is almost 40 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). While it may seem that the solution is a simple switch to renewable energy and green hydrogen, she noted the challenge in practice given production processes, investment timelines, and scale. Yet, in 2018–2019, Linde set 10-year greenhouse gas (GHG) targets and now has a 2035 Science-Based Target of absolute GHG reduction and a 2050 climate neutral ambition. Moreover, it started to report progress on a quarterly basis to investors, the only company she knows that does this. “To me, this speaks to institutional integrity, or the “G” in ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance),” she said. Clean energy is now a corporate strategy and a top priority for discussion by the CEO in part because it represents an investment opportunity. This illustrates that responding to the challenges of climate change and clean energy is possible, even in a large company in the hard-to-abate sector.

Focusing on the role of hydrogen in the clean energy transition, Krut noted that 40 governments have developed strategies to promote clean and green hydrogen to help achieve their net zero ambitions. An interim step is to promote clean or blue hydrogen, i.e., hydrogen produced with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) or Use and Sequestration (CCUS). Government incentives are now bringing the cost of blue hydrogen close to parity with grey hydrogen, and clean hydrogen projects are moving quickly. The aspiration is that Hydrogen helps achieve up to 15 percent of our global goals for net zero GHG emissions by 2050. That plan is that hydrogen production should grow 5x to 500 million metric tons per year and by 2050 that almost all hydrogen production should be green, i.e., hydrogen sourced from renewable electricity and water. The goal is to get to “1-1-1,” which she explained is to drive the cost of green hydrogen to $1 for 1 kilogram in 1 decade. However currently less than one percent of all hydrogen is green. This transition must overcome very substantial challenges. Several governments, notably in the European Union, have concerns for social equity, including ensuring that new projects use new, not existing, renewable electricity.

Krut shared several reflections from her perspective as a retired sustainability executive. Many green hydrogen projects have been proposed and some are in operation, like green hydrogen trains and ferries. But these projects are still insufficient in size for a just transition. Strong governance is needed. A just transition must avoid creating a “resource curse,” she stated. This is the paradox where countries, particularly in the developing world, offer their abundant natural resources to a global market but do not experience commensurate benefits. For example, South Africa and Namibia and Morocco are offering land and sun and wind for renewable resources to make green hydrogen, but those countries need to ensure that their citizens will benefit. A resilient just transition will require that governments, investors, innovators, and local stakeholders work together. She noted that the hard work is to knit together investors and local sources of knowledge.

U.S. GOVERNMENT PERSPECTIVES: JUSTICE40 AND LEGACY MANAGEMENT

Two speakers from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spoke on just transitions as they relate to DOE investments and stewardship of contaminated sites. Lupe Villatoro (DOE Office of Economic Impact and Diversity) discussed implementation within DOE of Justice40, the Biden Administration’s Executive Order 14008.¹⁹ Among funding affected, she called attention to the Inflation Reduction Act (Public Law 117-169), which appropriated $11.7 billion to DOE’s Loans Program Office to support new loans; $5.8 billion to the Office of Clean Energy

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Demonstrations; and $9 billion for states and tribes for consumer home energy rebates. Within the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s $1.2 trillion for the nation’s infrastructure, more than $62 billion was appropriated for a more equitable clean energy future.

The question is how to braid energy justice into an energy transition to ensure positive outcomes for people and communities, Villatoro continued. The Justice40 Initiative directs that 40 percent of certain federal investments—including clean energy and energy efficiency, clean transit, affordable and sustainable housing, training, and workforce development, remediation and reduction of legacy pollution, and development of clean water infrastructure—flow to disadvantaged communities.²⁰ Providing examples of covered programs and covered investments, Villatoro explained that to institutionalize change, a Community Benefits Plan (CBP) is a new requirement in DOE Funding Opportunity Announcements. The CBP looks at how the applicant will achieve Justice40 priorities. It will be weighted at 20 percent of an application’s overall scoring. Priorities to include in a CPB is how the applicant will meet or exceed Justice40 initiatives; promote diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility; provide good jobs; and establish workforce and community agreements for engagement. During the life of the award, a recipient is evaluated regularly.

Tania Smith Taylor (DOE Office of Legacy Management) spoke about long-term stewardship of formerly contaminated sites for beneficial re-use by communities. As background, the U.S. nuclear weapons complex, which began with the Manhattan Project, grew to employ 600,000 people at its peak, and has required one of the largest cleanups in the world. Many sites cannot be completely cleaned or released. The Office of Legacy Management was created to manage these sites, with dedicated funding and resources. There are now 101 sites in 30 states, projected to grow to 130 sites by 2030. A key is beneficial reuse, as they can be used for some energy, agriculture, commercial, recreation, conservation, and other uses. The Environmental Protection Agency recognized five of the sites for their environmental accomplishments from 2019 to 2023. Taylor shared examples from a multiuse development in Middlesex, New Jersey; Las Colonias Park in Grand Junction, Colorado; and Fernald Preserve in Hamilton, Ohio. The sites include educational exhibits about the sites and their remediation.

DISCUSSION

A participant asked about best practices in achieving the energy virtuous cycle presented by Audinet. To invest for a just transition, Audinet had suggested looking at all levels, such as recognizing that a broader combination is needed of new and different sources of capital and banking practices. In terms of benefits in scaling internationally, he pointed out that countries can become new customers and suppliers. Krut agreed with a participant that every choice involves tradeoffs and unintended consequences, whether in green hydrogen or other innovations. She urged not to let the perfect become the enemy of the good. “We need to be experimenting and trying new things. We need to consult with people on the ground. Those that are proximate to the challenges can be vital sources of innovation. They are also always crucial to long-term success. We should proceed mindfully. And then we must get started.”

SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES FOR JUST TRANSITIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Workshop committee member Anne Roby (retired, Linde, PLC) introduced this panel by underscoring the economic power of SMEs. In the United States, small businesses represent the vast majority of business entities, employ nearly half of U.S. private sector workers, generate about two-thirds of new jobs, and offer a diversity of goods and services.²¹ The panel discussed the role of SMEs in addressing progress in just transitions and sustainability, including innovative approaches and technologies to address a just transition while also affording resilience and economic vitality to communities.

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HORSES, NOT UNICORNS

Jennifer Holmgren (LanzaTech) described her company’s solution to making the planet more habitable through a technology that transforms carbon-rich industrial and solid waste to produce everyday products, including footwear, clothes, and air fuel.²² Explaining the technology, she said the main message is the need for transformative, not incremental change. She called for taking more risks, not worrying about getting everything right at the start, and being agile. In 2005, LanzaTech was told that using industrial waste gases for ethanol products was “impossible,” but they were successful in the lab in 2006 and currently have four operating commercial plants with 2 more expected to start up in 2023. The technology was piloted in China in part because China produces a lot of steel, but she said it is important to note that U.S. legislation created barriers to operating in this country.

“Horses can beat unicorns because horses are real,” Holmgren commented. Echoing Krut, she said rather than continue to search for the perfect solution or a miracle, “we must adopt a technology-neutral position and support all solutions; fail quickly and move on; and collaborate to address environmental concerns and get new fuels and chemicals to market.” The longer it takes to work out the language of legislation and enact it, the less likelihood for success, she added. The reality is it takes 20 years to get new technologies to scale and without support, they remain “another nice idea.” Scaling requires cash. “The new carbon economy is distributed and circular,” she concluded. “It is not science fiction; we have done it, and we know other people can do it.”

SME CLIMATE HUB

The SME Climate Hub, hosted by the We Mean Business Coalition in partnership with the Exponential Roadmap Initiative, provides SMEs with a “one-stop shop” to transition to net zero, explained Natalie Shemwell (SME Climate Hub).²³ It is the official pathway for SMEs to join the UN Race to Zero campaign.²⁴ More than 6,000 SMEs (defined as 500 or fewer employees) from 120 countries have made a commitment to halve emissions by 2030, achieve net zero by 2050, and report on their progress yearly.

SMEs are very vulnerable to climate change: for example, 40 to 60 percent never reopen after a disaster. A survey to determine the top reasons that SMEs do not take action on climate change identified lack of skills and knowledge (cited by 58 percent of respondents), funds (55 percent), and time (44 percent). “There can be no global net zero without SMEs,” stated Shemwell. She noted they can play a crucial role in just transitions because they are both stakeholders in global supply chains and central actors, local communities, and economies. This is why SMEs are also in a unique position to benefit from and contribute to a just transition. The SME Climate Hub provides small and medium businesses with tools and resources needed to take their first steps, publicly commit, measure emissions, act, and report progress toward net zero. SMEs cannot be left behind in the net zero transition, however, an important consideration is to prevent a disproportionate burden on SMEs. Governments, civil society, NGOs, large corporations, industry associations, and financial institutions all need to come together to support and incentivize SMEs to take action, she stated. Although the SME Climate Hub is a global initiative, the need to reach SMEs at a more local level is recognized, and expansion through local partners is under way.

SYSTEMS RESILIENCE

Marcel Castro-Sitiriche (University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez [UPRM]) discussed the aftermath of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico as an example of ethics and justice issues when faced with an environmental disaster. After the 2018 hurricane, parts of Puerto Rico lacked power for more than 150 days, and many families lacked power for longer than that. “We need resilient power,” he stated. Small solar-power systems could have substantially decreased the length of time for these people without power. He focused on the “last 5 percent,” or the approximately 62,000 families who lacked power after 196 days. Official reporting on their status ceased, yet he

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pointed out that a just transition must involve resiliency for the entire population.

To attain energy justice, rooftop solar systems with batteries seem the most feasible to save lives, he said. Reconstruction funds to build these systems could reduce energy costs, assist the most vulnerable, and build a new national culture of disaster resistance. UPRM has worked with about 20 communities in the past several years on rooftop solar and microgrid projects. A microgrid pilot project with a bakery and other businesses was built in 2022 in the small town of Castañer, and several other studies are in process. In September 2022, Hurricane Fiona hit the region. Although not as direct a hit on Puerto Rico as Hurricane Maria, 44 Puerto Ricans died, which is high for a Category 1 hurricane. The microgrid was tested during Fiona, with lessons learned about how to manage battery use. He also noted the need not just for restoration but also mitigation. Distributed energy can contribute to energy justice, he concluded.

DISCUSSION

Asked how to organize small enterprises at the very local level to address sustainability, Shemwell suggested engaging with them through the local organizations and associations that already exist and that are familiar to them, such as small trade associations or NGOs. Many have shown interest in learning from peers and sharing case studies. Financing for climate technology is a massive issue, Holmgren acknowledged, whether for a new company or a developing country. LanzaTech took incremental steps to work around roadblocks. They collected data on results and often went to unusual sources for capital for construction.

A participant commented on the intersectoral links in just transitions comprising energy, food security, and public health, and that vulnerability is not equally distributed. Castro-Sitiriche noted that more than 3,000 Puerto Ricans died in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, many because of a lack of power at medical facilities. He proposed three metrics to consider: loss of life, quality of life, and total length of a power outage. Clean energy needs to be “clean” in terms of emissions but also social aspects from oppression, abuses, and colonialism. Underscoring the workshop theme of just transition, Holmgren said LanzaTech believes it is important to train local communities in new technologies to avoid negative environmental, social, and economic impacts.

JUST TRANSITIONS, EDUCATION, AND INCLUSIVE SKILLS DEVELOPMENT

In the final panel moderated by Gillian Hinde (Ernst & Young), panelists focused on the importance of education and inclusive skills development to achieve just transitions and sustainable development, including youth programs, K-12 STEM education, and intergenerational and community-led knowledge. Education can play a pivotal role so no one is left behind, but it goes beyond access to education, Hinde said. Just transitions to green and blue economies require training the local workforce, supporting marginalized populations, reclaiming ancestral and indigenous knowledge, and fostering innovation.

OUR WORLD, OUR WORK

Andrés Henriquez (Education Development Center [EDC]) explained that EDC was founded in 1958 to develop curriculum in the wake of Sputnik. Although it has expanded into other areas and parts of the world, it seeks to transform education, seed environmental stewardship, and create paths to future-facing careers in sustainability and STEM.

Focusing on one such effort, Our World, Our Work is a project to equip 1 million young people (60 percent female) to be employed or self-employed in decent, inclusive, sustainable green and blue jobs over the next 10 years.²⁵ It aims to bring coherence across sectors, for example, between those involved in youth employment and those involved in the green and blue economies. Areas of research include global supply and demand trends in the labor market, the hottest growth sectors for green and blue jobs, barriers to development the green/blue economy, and detailed analyses of the sectors. For example, looking at LMICs, takeaways are that the sectors with the biggest potential for jobs that require a variety of skills are renewable energy and construction.

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An occupational catalogue has been created with the aim to make it searchable on a mobile app.

Henriquez reported four gaps have been identified in the United States and globally: implementation (policies exist but little action), information, skills, and coordination (between private sector needs and educational settings). EDC is working with partners to close the gaps through a systems approach. Henriquez summarized the tools available to help businesses, governments, and youth, including a heat map of employment by sector, the occupational catalogue, technical assistance, local labor market assessments, climate change modules, and an app for young entrepreneurs. In October 2023, a summit on Envisioning STEM Education for the Green and Blue Economy is scheduled to be held in Washington, DC, with funding from the National Science Foundation.

K-12 STEM EDUCATION

Brian Mandell (Smithsonian Science Education Center) noted envisioning a desired shared future contributed to the formulation of the SDGs. The United Nations conducted a large participatory survey in person and online, and 60 percent of the respondents were aged 25 or younger. Similarly, the Smithsonian’s goal is to catalyze critical conversations and actions about a sustainable shared future. Three priorities of the Smithsonian Science Education Center, the only unit within the institution dedicated to formal K-12 STEM education, are inclusion, sustainability, and education.

The Smithsonian Science for Global Goals project started in January 2016, when a top health concern was the Zika virus. Working with the InterAcademy Partnership, resources were developed to inspire young people ages 11 to 18 to take action. Since then, Community Research Guides have been designed to empower young people to act in their local communities, with the SDGs as a framework. The modules share essential components: presenting a problem from multiple perspectives, meeting diverse researchers, engaging in research in local communities with data personal to them, fostering growth of student capital and leadership, and getting experience to work and make decisions about complex civic problems within a diverse context.²⁶ Each module has a progression in which students discover, understand, and act. The ultimate goal is to help youth develop a sustainability mindset (Figure 2), Mandell said. Equity and justice are a key aspect of this mindset. Local action can lead to global impact.

To date, 41,000 educators have been trained and 4.7 million students impacted. Three new modules will be published in early 2024, on energy, oceans, and humans in the environment. Mandell shared three points in closing. First, education is a catalyst and the foundation of sustainable transition. Second, a truly just transition leaves no one behind. This starts in the early years and should connect through inclusive skills development for the workforce. Third, local communities are the architects of their sustainable future.

INTERGENERATIONAL, COMMUNITY-BASED INITIATIVES

Elizabeth Yeampierre (Climate Justice Alliance and UPROSE) described a center of gravity for the climate movement around communities and people working together across generations. The Climate Justice Alliance was founded in 2013 and is made up of 89 organizations. In turn, members are made up of community-based organizations, networks, and alliances that work on environmental justice and link to broader struggles for positive social change and transformation.

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The term “just transition” is being redefined by many entities that do not have communities’ interests at heart, Yeampierre stated. In contrast, she introduced the Just Transition Framework developed by the Movement Generation as a unifying vision and strategy to move from an extractive to regenerative economy.²⁸ “In order to solve the climate crisis, we need to be organizing for a transition to local, living economies that regenerate our communities, our environments, and ourselves,” she said. It is necessary to “change the story,” she said. Solutions should local, and ancestral knowledge must be reclaimed. It is important to “fight the bad, change the rules, move the money, and build the bigger We” around climate consciousness and thinking collectively. Climate change is related to many other issues, such as policing, housing, and other policies and practices. Investments in solutions must be frontline-led.

As an example of a frontline-led effort, UPROSE is Brooklyn’s oldest Latino community-based organization. It is intergenerational, multiracial, and led by women of color. Results including supporting youth to go to college, organize a large summit, advocate to increase open space, and carry out local environmental monitoring, planning, and other activities. UPROSE is involved in developing resilient infrastructure through a non-extractive lens, she said. Opportunities are integrated to encompass renewable energy, food security, safe drinking water, and other needs, as she shared in a schematic of a proposal for a green resilient industrial district along the Brooklyn waterfront. National priorities and agendas must be defined by people on the ground, she stressed.

DISCUSSION

To counter pushback against sustainability as a “passing fad,” Mandell explained the importance of developing educational “scope, sequence, and standard alignment” so that administrators can include sustainability in the curriculum. The topics in the Smithsonian Community Guides are ubiquitous, he added, and it is critical that they are grounded in science. He noted that parents and educators support the concepts of sustainability, but sometimes without an understanding of the SDGs themselves. A Gallup survey soon to be released shows that teachers are clamoring for materials on sustainability topics. Henriquez stressed the importance of teaching not only technical skills, but also such 21st century skills as collaboration and critical thinking. In response to a participant’s question about how to balance science and activism to effect policy change, Yeampierre said scientists play an important role in documenting environmental exposures and other impacts. To become an organizing tool, the information must be collected and shared with communities in a way they can understand and use.

A participant said she appreciated the emphasis of the discussion on youth, while another called for more focus on interspecies justice. Hinde suggested this latter concept receive more attention and also underscored the need for all types of education that encompass intergenerational processes, indigenous knowledge, modern science, and other pathways.

A PATH FORWARD: FUTURE NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Workshop chair Martin noted the examples from other countries and different possibilities for collaboration before opening a general discussion among participants to share their takeaways from the sessions. Murray stressed the importance of capacity building and education for adults. Building on this idea, a participant from the Baltimore Green Justice Workers Cooperative agreed with the critical need to educate youth but pointed to opportunities to reach adult learners in GED (general educational development) programs.²⁹ As she reminded the group, “parents are our kids’ first teachers.” Yeampierre reinforced the value of cross-generational learning and the relationships that result. Henriquez suggested upskilling and re-skilling through GED and AEV (advanced education voucher) programs. Meaningful workforce development must be brought to bear for the approximately 60 percent of young people who do not go to college, he added.

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Martin highlighted several upcoming global gatherings where just transitions will be discussed, such as the UN Summit mentioned previously. He pointed to a program in New Zealand to reskill Māori youth as an example of a program that addresses sustainability and just transitions.³⁰ A participant highlighted the need to consider the effect of climate change on the urban poor, warning that urban adaptation cannot be done on the backs of the urban poor. “We can collaborate so they are not just the victims, but sources of insight,” he said. Yeampierre agreed with the need to involve local people to deal with extreme weather but avoid displacement and other negative impacts. Another participant urged attention to external difficulties, including conflicts and poverty, in discussions about sustainability and just transitions. Carrero-Martínez said the Roundtable provides advice on how the National Academies can support sustainability in the midst of these global challenges.³¹

A participant reflected on several takeaways for him. First, “just transition” means different things in different places, and place matters. Second is the criticality of both private and public investment. Third, bringing in the social element, new job opportunities must be available where the people are. Transitions are not friction free, and research is needed on how to create virtuous transitions. He called for more research on metrics based on the assumption that information affects behavior, as well as avoiding the paradox of plenty and poverty in resource-rich countries.

In determining who speaks for a community, a participant observed that many will claim they do, especially when investments are involved. Community-driven efforts takes a lot of time and point to the importance of communication, another said. Another reflected on the abundance of information yet the proliferation of a trust deficit. She noted research shows little trust in most institutions, with small businesses as an exception, so empowering SMEs might be a way to advance the sustainability message. Hinde pointed to vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystems formed around specific issues that can galvanize participation. Yeampierre warned against organizations that “helicopter” into communities. She noted her group does not move or advance an agenda, but instead provides the conditions—such as language translation, childcare, food, and convenient meeting times—for community members to take the lead. Working with local people is the first step to define what community is and that processes are just.

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DISCLAIMER This Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief was prepared by Franklin Carrero-Martínez, Paula Whitacre, and Emi Kameyama as a factual summary of what occurred at the meeting. The statements made are those of the rapporteurs or individual meeting participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all meeting participants; the planning committee; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

COMMITTEE ON CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES TOWARDS A JUST TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Jeff Martin (Chair), Tribal Planet, Inc.; Nebojsa Nakicenovic, The World In 2050; Anne Roby (NAE), Formerly Linde, PLC; and Beatriz Sanz Sáiz, Ernst and Young.

STAFF Franklin Carrero-Martínez, Senior Director, Science and Technology for Sustainability Program (STS), Policy and Global Affairs; Emi Kameyama, Program Officer, STS; Danielle Etheridge, Administrative Assistant, STS; John Holmes, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; and Heidi Schweingruber, Board on Science Education, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

REVIEWERS To ensure that it meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity, this Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief was reviewed by José Lobo, Arizona State University and Mandy Rambharos, Environmental Defense Fund.

SPONSOR This workshop was supported by the National Academy of Sciences George and Cynthia Mitchell Endowment for Sustainability.

SUGGESTED CITATION National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Challenges and Opportunities Toward a Just Transition and Sustainable Development: Proceedings of a Workshop—In Brief: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27428.